Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
